History of the financial crisis 2008-2011

Phase 1: fighting the downturn

A country is losing international competitiveness and threatens a slowdown. The Central Bank
reacts with low interest rates by the usual rates of economic growth as long as possible up
to obtain.

Phase 2: The housing boom created

The low interest rates make debt-financed property purchases attractive. This triggers a 5-10 years
continuing boom in the real estate market. Even though there is no evidence of a bubble, because the
Property price increases are not excessive. In this phase also witnessed the labor intensive
Construction sector was booming. This keeps the unemployment rate is low and covers structural deficits in
other areas.

Phase 3: The boom is excessively

On the face of it the economy is doing well, the perception of risk decreases and all parties
begin to believe that real estate prices "to rise forever." Consumption is booming because of the
rapidly rising real estate value of the population feels richer and unemployment remains
low due to the construction boom.

Phase 4: final phase of the bubble

The vacancy rate of properties is increasing, because by the construction boom and more and more homes coming
Houses on the market. Although the rental rates down is not as fast as prices explode
this stronger than ever. The reason: In the credit sector, creating a so-called "Ponzi scheme". In anticipation
secure profits will be waived for mortgage loans on collateral. More and more people who want a
Real estate can not really afford to be lured by dubious promotions in mortgage loans.

Phase 5: The market reached its peak

The expectation is also rapidly rising rents will be disappointed and the first property owners to try their
non-profitable items to sell. Property prices have stagnated for the first time in many years for 5-6 months.

This step (5) marks the turning point. The bubble bursts and all the economic
Distortions come from now in 5 more levels to light.

Phase 6: First fall in prices of real estate

The relationship between supply and demand tips. Property prices fall for the first time over the year
by 3-5%. The weakest links in the chain (sub-prime borrowers, the latest buyer) can
now no longer pay their mortgages. The industry is widespread optimism: "In the long term real estate
only increase. "

Phase 7: panic erupts

The impending crisis is identified. Real estate speculators are trying their properties as quickly as
possible to get rid of. At the same time rising foreclosures. The drop in prices for real estate
speeded up (to> 10% per annum). The loan loss ratio is picking up strongly, unreasonable credit institutions
have its own experts in the mortgage market are facing bankruptcy and kidnap this failure
in the expectation of improvement.

Phase 8: The bank crash

The first small banks can not hide your layers Chief balance more and go into bankruptcy.
The risk perception among large banks is rising dramatically. The guidelines for lending are
strengthened in all areas. This new mortgage borrowers always presents difficulties. It is
for "Credit Squeeze" (credit institutions do not trust each other more) should be the first large banks
before the bankruptcy.

Phase 9: The rescue measures

Large banks are "too big to fail" and be rescued by the state, because it would bankrupt the entire system
at risk. The state is trying simultaneously to the downturn by slowing economic programs
and throws the Central Bank "printing machine". The rate cuts fall flat, however, as the banks
keep up your interest rates to cover the balance. Simultaneously, the construction activity drops to a historic
Low. Unemployment starts to rise.

Phase 10: The duration of recession

To affect the rescue of the state and the central bank and begin the slow shock-like
Recession. It does not come to a total collapse of the economy but a weak recession.
From this, the country is, however, for very many years, no way out, because the crisis is now no longer
cyclical but structural. "

Intraday AUD/USD 17.8.2011

Intraday AUD/USD: the RSI is well directed, the pair is rebounding on its support and should post further advance. Suggests long positions above 1.0405, with targets at 1.0515 and 1.0630 in extension. Below 1.0405 look for further downside, with 1.0350 and 1.0250 as targets.

Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range

Intraday EUR/CHF 17.8.2011

Intraday EUR/CHF: the pair has rebounded on its new support and should post further advance as the RSI is well directed. Suggests long positions above 1.1360, with targets at 1.1550 and 1.1670 in extension. Below 1.1360 look for further downside, with 1.1240 and 1.1145 as targets.

Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish

Intraday EUR/JPY 17.8.2011

Intraday EUR/JPY: the pair remains under pressure and is challenging its support, the RSI is capped by a declining trend line. Suggests short positions below 111.10, with targets at 110.10 and 109.60 in extension. Above 111.10 look for further upside, with 111.75 and 112.40 as targets.

Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish

Intraday EUR/GBP 17.8.2011

Intraday EUR/GBP: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution. Suggests short positions below 0.8800, with targets at 0.8730 and 0.8710 in extension. Above 0.8800 look for further upside, with 0.8830 and 0.8850 as targets.

Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish

Intraday USD/CHF 17.8.2011

Intraday USD/CHF: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%. Suggests long positions above 0.7820, with targets at 0.7995 and 0.8050 in extension. Below 0.7820 look for further downside, with 0.7760 and 0.7680 as targets.

Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish

Intraday GBP/USD 17.8.2011

Intraday GBP/USD: the pair stands above its support and remains on the upside. Suggests long positions above 1.6395, with 1.6480 and 1.6540 in sight. The downside breakout of 1.6395 will open the way to 1.6360 and 1.6325.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish

Intraday USD/JPY 17.8.2011

Intraday USD/JPY: the pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure. Suggests short positions below 77.00, with 76.50 and 76.30 as next targets. The upside penetration of 77.00 will call for a rebound towards 77.20 and 77.50.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish

Intraday EUR/USD 17.8.2011

Intraday EUR/USD: the pair has rebounded on its support and should post a further advance as the RSI is well directed. Suggests long positions above 1.4350, with targets at 1.4450 and 1.4480. The downside penetration of 1.4350 will call for a slide towards 1.4310 and 1.4275.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish

Swiss Franc Strengthens as SNB Disappoints Investors

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-The Swiss franc extended its gains against the euro and dollar after the Swiss National Bank came out with a plan to stymie the franc's rise, which failed to satisfy investors who were expecting more aggressive measures.

The euro plunged as low as CHF1.1224 as the SNB said it would increase its liquidity measures by CHF80 billion to CHF200 billion - but didn't peg the franc to the euro as many market participants were expecting. The franc gave back some of its gains against the dollar in U.S. hours, trading at CHF0.7900 late Wednesday, from CHF0.7962 Tuesday according to CQG.

The Swiss economy needs more than just intervention, said a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Paul Robson, it needs a global economic recovery. Investors are flocking to the Swiss franc as a stable asset to hold in the midst of a series of global economic scares. 

Tuesday's summit between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel was the latest ripple, as the proposals to tackle Europe's sovereign debt crisis were viewed in the market as too mild. "It's too small to handle the flood of scared capital," Robson said of the intervention plan outlined by the SNB on Wednesday. "The fortune of the franc is probably more down to Frankfurt and Paris."

Meanwhile, as the dollar fell against the franc, euro and British pound, higher commodity prices lifted growth-sensitive currencies like the Aussie dollar, New Zealand kiwi and most European emerging currencies. Late Wednesday, the euro was at $1.4427 from $1.4407 late Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y76.60 from Y76.82, while the euro was at Y110.50 from Y110.68. The U.K. pound was at $1.6544 from $1.6460.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was unchanged at 74.010.

The euro tested session highs against the greenback at $1.4518 from $1.4475 following higher-than-expected U.S. producer price data, which climbed 0.2%, above the 0.1% forecast.

"The market has already priced in a bearish outlook for global economic growth, says Robson. "But there are concerns that the market is talking itself into another slowdown that may or may not have been driven by supplied disruption."

The Japanese yen traded uncomfortably close to all-time low of Y76.25, while currency markets continue to monitor the yen's movements to see if the Bank of Japan will intervene.

USD/TWD Biased Down

The USD/TWD is likely to fall a tad from 28.962 in late Asia trade Thursday on expected outflows spurred by a volatile local stock market, says a local trader; he tips the pair to hover in a 28.880-28.970 range. Exporter selling will likely cap the pair around 28.950 unless the central bank intervenes to pull the pair up. Outflows will likely continue given the uncertainty in the global economy. Taiwan shares on Thursday end down 0.7%; foreign investors were net sellers of NT$11.32 billion worth of shares.

Financial crisis

As a result of the financial crisis of several smaller members of the European Union want the big European countries in economic policy closer together. Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have initiated this common economic government of the euro zone. A financial transaction tax and a debt brake in all euro countries are to be inserted into the joint proposal package. European bonds, however, reject both "still" from strictly.

Now it looks really say that it has acted in the course slides because of the political skirmishes around the excessive U.S. debt to a real summer thunderstorm, not to say summer theater. Of course, this news combined with the fact triggered by the debt crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland from among many investors real abdominal pain.

But we as private investors, whose investments trigger a fund because of their small size as well as any reactions within the financial product can invest our money into smaller or innovative funding instruments, without fear that we have to have caused adverse price swings.

As we read recently, was to be institutional investors (eg insurance companies and fund of funds managers) are increasingly confronted with the fact that they run out of investment opportunities.

In my opinion, currently offers the opportunity to work with an equity fund in Germany to invest an undervalued market, which will probably drop in six months, a proper return.

Brookfield

GDP is the exotic with our five buy-and-hold recommendations. The partnership invests in real estate attractive. For example, it is involved in a coal terminal in Australia, a Chilean power plant, various wood properties, and a hydropower project in Brazil.

Total manages a total GDP of 150 billion U.S. dollars. Focal points are in the range lands, renewable energy and infrastructure. The focus, according to CEO Bruce Flatt is currently mainly European infrastructure companies in need of restructuring, where one wishes to participate favorable.  

GDP has a very good track record. The carrying value of investments in 2010 rose by 1.1 billion U.S. dollars of net profit in the second quarter rose by nine times. The dividend yield of 5.6 percent is just as attractive as the fundamental valuation with nine times the expected FFO "funds from operations".

Philip Morris has growth potential

For all those who have no moral qualms, is the world's largest cigarette manufacturer, Philip Morris, a great investment. Cigarettes are probably the best division in the last 100 years: An extremely high brand loyalty, combined with an addictive product give the business almost monopolistic traits. That is the guarantee for high profits. The Pioneers sell their tobacco products in 180 countries worldwide and seven of the world's 15 biggest name brands of cigarettes her own (including Marlboro, L & M, Chesterfield). Equally important: The company is a shareholder-friendly companies in general.

In the past three years, the dividend rose by 39 percent. Simultaneously repurchased 330 million shares and retired. The number of shares outstanding fell by 16 percent so. Accordingly, the profit per share and thus increase the proportion of each shareholder in the company. Although cigarette consumption has been decreasing in Western countries, Philip Morris has more growth potential on a global level. With a dividend yield of just under four percent of the stock is attractively valued trend.

Buy google shares

Facebook or not - Google dominates on the Internet because it is used by most users as an entry page. This gives a huge advantage for the search engine king, search terms (keywords) can be auctioned to the highest bidder willing to advertising. In return, the customer will be placed in a prominent place. Google earned each time with strong, if a user clicks on the appropriate link. The business model is similarly strong and profitable as that of MasterCard.

With the mobile operating system Android, Google has also landed another direct hit and become the toughest competitors in smartphones from Apple. With YouTube, Californians also dominate the online video market. The new social networking site plus Google is a kind of wild card and will make medium-and long-term competitor Facebook. Also, Google is following the market correction with a 2012er-earnings ratio of 13 as low as never before.

Conclusion: Buy and leave!

MasterCard Shareholders

MasterCard Shareholders rejoice every time they see anywhere in the world someone pay with a MasterCard. 887 million users make transactions worth over 540 billion dollars per year with their MasterCard and each time this fall from a few cents to the credit card companies. Only five years, shareholders can purchase shares in the company, founded in 1966. During this time, the stock has already risen by a whopping 610 percent. This year, now even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Company invested over € 50 million in MasterCard.

The company has only one serious competitor with Visa and therefore a high price of power (duopoly). In an increasingly "cashless" expectant world, the signs continue to grow.

In addition, the stock is attractively valued despite the high rate visually. The Price-Earnings-Growth ratio was below unity (0.9). This means that the predicted percentage profit growth is higher than the PER for the current year.

Conclusion: Buy and leave!

Japanese Yen Trading

YUK (USD/JPY): further USD decline expected

Pivot: 79.8
Our forecast: Down move towards 76 or even 75.
Comment: The pair remains under pressure and is challenging its previous low.

To leverage our Trend Opinion on Japanese Yen, we can use different options:

1. Buy YUK Sep 11 77 PUT
1. Buy YUK Sep 11 79 PUT
1. Buy YUK Oct 11 76 PUT

My conclusion about Praktiker

- Praktiker has overslept the trend. Only when the customer does not come cheap more. But you also can not cut at all do not. Since the abandonment of the discount promotion, customers stay away.

- It will last until a new positioning will bring the desired results. Open is when the company will grow back. In the past, the growth was mainly due to acquisitions.

- Since the market capitalization is always lower due to the reduced price, fate is uncertain in the MDAX. A descent into the SDAX would put the share price remains under pressure.

- In the medium term could help to bounce back to the ailing company's "extraordinary boom" by the plans of the federal government for energy policy. This would inspire the DIY sector as a whole. However, practitioners such as OBI's competitors are much better placed.

More quality is importent

Praktiker CEO Wolfgang Werner, who had himself celebrated in the tabloids as "discount-king", had been thrown after the recent profit warning in the towel. He wanted the company only as long lead until a successor is found for him, sent a message to Werner. The rationale for the surprising step: The change in strategy away from price-cutter image and towards more quality and advice, did not work. The accelerated expansion of Werner in Greece and Romania proved to be a mortgage, as these countries slid into crisis. Now it is to judge another.

This "other" is not exactly easy, as the management of practitioners had already explained that they wanted from the path that was taken, not fundamentally different. That sounds like quite as "Who says A must say B" and that does not sound very promising.

It was true to ("... of the unprofitable 20-percent-discount promotions, and the legendary slogan other than pet food "to adopt). The company had been associated with the massive discounts to the brink of viability. But instead, then put on a cleaner with more own-brand range, you could not win back lost market share.

Well first, the new advertising campaign will be revised to be more "aggressive". Boris Becker as the flagship yourselfers - who actually takes practitioners from such a thing? - Wants to hold you. Abroad, structural adjustments, cost reductions and job cuts are planned. Also, the closure of branches is no longer excluded.

Stay away from practitioners

Not a good year for practitioners: profit warning, a disastrous half-yearly report, obvious strategic errors, the resignation of Chief Executive Wolfgang Werner, the share of the Saarland in a dive to all-time low - cut off at the end of the MDAX. Since March, the losses amount to more than 70 percent.

Is the worst behind it, finally, Germany's second largest home improvement chain? Probably not. My advice to investors: Stay away! The practitioner papers are also a bargain at current levels ...

Even Wimbledon hero Boris Becker as a promotional ambassador could not boost business at practitioners. The figures, published by the company were just abysmal, despite the best barbecue and garden weather, sales and earnings remained in the seasonally important second quarter, far below even the company itself again and again communicated expectations.

In fact, the turnover has fallen by almost eight percent to 956.6 million euros, due to weak demand in Germany and internationally. Operating profit before goodwill amortization decreased by 35 percent to 41.7 million euros, the company reported net loss of 307.1 million euros, after the year before, could generate an increase of 25.8 million euros. Analysts had expected only a loss of 139 million euros, an adjusted EBITA of 49 million euros and a turnover of 971 million euros.

My conclusion about Spain

- Spain suffers from a large set of problems: First, the groans industrial core of the Spanish economy to competition problems.

- Second, the coupling of wages to consumer prices, wages have let rise. But that impairs the international competitiveness.

- Third, the effects of the bursting housing bubble, which stems from low interest rates are still evident everywhere.

- Fourth, the unemployment makes for explosive social turmoil. Strikes are almost a daily occurrence.

- Nevertheless, the recently launched Spanish reform and the labor market more flexible help you find out from the competition fatal weakness. The Spanish economy is growing slowly for about a year. The national debt is huge, but we can not ignore the fact that with just over 60 percent is even lower than the German.

- If Spain maintains the consistent saving and reform, the chances are themselves struggling out of the crisis, despite all the reservations that one must have good.

- Spanish Government bonds should buy now only very risk-taking investors. Wait for the general election in November.

Now they want to save money

The government of Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has announced that now want to save iron. The budget deficit will be so until the end of the year to just six percent of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased. The Ministry of Finance in Madrid, founded the optimistic outlook so that the deficit has declined in the first half year compared to the same period by 18.9 percent to 24.1 billion euros. This sum corresponds to 2.21 percent of GDP. The Secretary of the Treasury, Juan Manuel López Carbajo, said the figures indicated an "economic stabilization" to what has caused among many economists, but only for compassionate smile.
Carbajo lay unmoved by: Together with a tax consolidation justifies this development, the expectation that the goal would be achieved a reduction in the deficit from 9.2 percent last year to 6.0 percent by the end of this year. Until 2014, the federal deficit will be even significantly scaled back under the EU ceiling of 3.0 percent to 2.1 percent.
Can the Spaniards succeed in the comeback? Probably only if the course of economic reform begun in the rest are not and there is no reform of the reform. Will also play a role, what is the newly elected head of government for accents.
Zapatero had announced that because of the crisis in the country the next election by four months on the 20th November preferable. Actually should have been elected until March 2012. The Prime Minister himself, in power since 2004, will not play any more. He spoke out in May for interior minister Rubalcaba as the leading candidate of his party. This will go on the path of his friend's party further, he said, and rely mainly the domestic industry. For the longer runs and more from Spain.
Is an example for many in (and to) the home suffering from global companies telecom operator Telefonica. The company was in the first half due to strong demand in Latin America to increase sales and operating profit. Revenue increased by 6.3 percent to 30.9 billion euros. Even in operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization were the Spaniards - in Germany with the mobile phone brand O2 represented - as better with a gain of 3.7 percent to 11.3 billion euros.
Nevertheless, the expectations of the experts missed Telefonica relatively clear. Reason: In Spain, Telefonica, on account of the general economic weakness over the previous year to 6.1 percent less. On rapid and sustainable improvement in our own country seems not to put Telefonica: The Group has announced that 6500 will emphasize additional points ...

Unprecedented building boom

Low interest rates and lending without collateral were great in Spain - has led to an unprecedented building boom - just like in the U.S.. The man who earned it before anyone else, is Florentino Perez. The Madrid-born engineer road was long considered a kind of King Midas of the Spanish economy.
Pérez bought 28 years ago, "passing" and President of Real Madrid, for the symbolic price of one peseta, the bankrupt construction company Padrós. From this he formed the construction giant ACS, is now the majority shareholder in Essen traditional company Hochtief. Despite nine billion euros of debt ACS will acquire in the coming months Hochtief papers. In our own country, the order situation has collapsed.
Three years after the bursting of some 700,000 newly-built houses and flats for sale. Most of them on the coasts, in the Canaries or the Balearics. With the end of the building boom began the decline of the economy. Spain fights since then, with a record unemployment. According to the statistics agency INE, the rate was 20.89 percent in the second quarter. Especially young people it hits. Thus, every second from Madrid under 25 without a job. This is kriselte in the Spanish economy is so important for the tourism industry.
It accounts for approximately eleven percent of the gross domestic product. But in 2009, the industry revenue totaled only € 73.6 billion - after almost 80 billion euros in 2008. This year, the tourists seem to return. The revenue from business with visitors from abroad increased in the first five months of 2011 by eight percent. A trend can be read out of it but not yet. Most important is the business in the third quarter of the year.
The city's financial system in Spain kriselt: Just recently, the Spanish savings bank Caja Mediterraneo (CAM), which sits on a mountain of unsold holiday objects on the coast around Benidorm, has been filed by the central bank under state control. To avoid a last-minute payment default, the Bank has injected € 2.8 billion. The CAM is one of five Spanish "cajas", which rattled recently by the EU stress test. Calculations by Boston Consulting slumber in Spain's financial sector is still real estate risks by at least 35 billion euros.
The central bank has set the savings banks a deadline until September, so as to acquire the stock market or with the help of investors' capital. € 15 billion are needed. Without the state's money will go but probably not. Since all experts agree.

Credit rating in big jeopardy

The assessment of creditworthiness with AA2 Spanish would be reviewed in detail, said Moody's. The latest is the third-best mark, but this is hardly justified. The rating agency sees growing risks to the owners come from the Spanish government bonds. Reason the test is the increasing vulnerability of public finances and little hope of quick solutions. In addition, should the financing pressure growing on the southern Europeans to the new rescue package for Greece.

The Spanish State has four times in July alone securities placed on the market. On 21 July saw the Spanish Treasury forced to lure investors with the highest returns since 1997, to accommodate ten-and 15-year bonds can. On 26 July was the demand for short-term government bonds from far less than expected.

Profits in rising and falling price

With Dr. Andrea Unger trading system, you have the opportunity both to rising than to speculate and falling prices. So you can achieve in any market condition (!) And high profits are independent of the current market development.

CFDs offer you 6 things

1st Fast high profits through leverage (up to 100-times leverage)
2nd Lower fees than the trading of warrants
3rd With rising and falling prices high profits possible
4th Even for 500 € entry possible
5th As a share
6th 1,000 euros are enough to deal with 100,000 Euros!

Fast high profits through leverage

CFDs give you the opportunity to trade with small capital-use. You need i.d.R. only 5% of the market value of a share (usually 1% for indices) as capital deposit. This security is also called "margin". Correspondingly larger (ie 1 to 20 for equities and indices from 1 to 100) is also the possible gain leverage (ie the ratio of capital employed to maximizing profits). In short, suffice 1,000 euros to 100,000 euros deal with!

Global Copper Index Fund

CU (FT ISE Global Copper Index Fund): Corrective recovery expected.

Pivot: 31.65
Our forecast: a bounce towards 37.35 is expected.
Comment: the index is bouncing off a support area. The daily RSI is reversing down from its oversold area.

To leverage our Trend Opinion on the FT ISE Global Copper Index Fund rate we selected the following strategy.

Buy at last price ($33.61) CU - FT ISE Global Copper Index Fund

Protection against large losses

Leverage certificates offer enormous profit opportunities. This of course increases the risk of loss. Therefore, we safeguard our recommendations. With so-called stop-loss marks.

This means: If our leverage certificates tip not developed as desired, we get off in time. This will give you back the most money and keep the losses within limits.

Advantages of leverage certificates at a glance

• gains in rising markets (= Long-lever certificate)
    AND
• profits in a falling market (= short lever certificate)
• With lever effect multiply profits
• With minimal use of quick high gains possible
• Simple and "fairer" than warrants:
    therefore more transparent
• Constant lever purchase
    (in warrants, this is not given)
• No or low premium
• Easy-tradable (like a stock!)

British Pound Trading

BPX (USD/GBP): further USD decline expected


Pivot: 62.15
Our forecast: Down move towards 60.5 or even 59.75.
Comment: The pair has broken below a rising trend line and remains under pressure, the RSI is badly directed.

To leverage our Trend Opinion on British Pound, we can use different options :

1. Buy BPX Sep 11 62 PUT
1. Buy BPX Sep 11 63 PUT
1. Buy BPX Oct 11 62 PUT

Credit rating in jeopardy

The assessment of creditworthiness with AA2 Spanish would be reviewed in detail, said Moody's. The latest is the third-best mark, but this is hardly justified. The rating agency sees growing risks to the owners come from the Spanish government bonds. Reason the test is the increasing vulnerability of public finances and little hope of quick solutions. In addition, should the financing pressure growing on the southern Europeans to the new rescue package for Greece.

The Spanish State has four times in July alone securities placed on the market. On 21 July saw the Spanish Treasury forced to lure investors with the highest returns since 1997, to accommodate ten-and 15-year bonds can. On 26 July was the demand for short-term government bonds from far less than expected.

Euro Trading OUTLOOK 5.8.2011

EUU (EUR/USD): further USD decline expected

Pivot: 140
Our forecast: Up move towards 145 or even 147.
Comment: The pair has rebounded on its support and should post further advance.

To leverage our Trend Opinion on Euro, we selected the following strategy.

Buy EUU Sep 11 145 CALL

The Amundi ETF MSCI World ex Europe

According to mutual fund company is the investment objective of the Fund to support the development of the MSCI World ex Europe Index as closely as possible to replicate, in both its positive and negative developments. To achieve the highest possible correlation with the performance of the MSCI World ex Europe Index to, the Fund will create an international basket of stocks and invest in a private contract traded equity and index-linked swap, whereby the investment of its assets in Fund shares for an investment in the MSCI World ex EMU Index is replaced.

FT Global Wind Energy Index Fund OUTLOOK 3.8.2011

FAN (FT Global Wind Energy Index Fund): Rebound expected.

Pivot: 9.60
Our forecast: a bounce towards 10.60 is expected.
Comment: the index is close to a support area. The daily RSI is supported by a rising trend line while the daily MACD is posting a bullish divergence.

To leverage our Trend Opinion on the FT Global Wind Energy Index Fund rate we selected the following strategy.

Buy at last price ($9.74) - FAN - FT Global Wind Energy Index Fund

Swedish Krona Trading OUTLOOK 2.8.2011

SKA (USD/SEK): further USD decline expected

Pivot: 65
Our forecast: Down move towards 61.25 or even 60.
Comment: The pair has validated a bearish flag and should reach its previous low.


To leverage our Trend Opinion on Swedish Krona, we selected the following strategy.

Buy SKA Sep 11 63.5 PUT

FX OPTIONS TREND OPINIONS 1.8.2011

Swiss Franc Trading OUTLOOK
SFC (USD/CHF): further USD decline expected


Pivot: 82.50
Our forecast: Down move towards 78 or even 75.
Comment: The pair is posting a rebound but remains within a MT bearish channel while the daily RSI is capped by a declining trend line.


To leverage our Trend Opinion on Swiss Franc, we can use different options :

1. Buy SFC Sep 11 78.5 PUT
1. Buy SFC Sep 11 80 PUT
1. Buy SFC Oct 11 78.5 PUT

Linkedin

The third value in our sample, we choose Fusion io, a hardware vendor. You remember: The first internet hype about the millennium was flushed with the second and third upward wave (ie the portal and e-commerce stocks had been exhausted) the title of top hardware. At that time, the companies that form the backbone of the Internet were virtually: fiberglass specialists, router vendors, etc.
Today there are companies that are driving the mobile Internet technology, such as ARM Holdings (chips for smart phones) or Fusion io. Fusion io has developed a new platform for storing and Wiederabrufbarkeit of data within a data center. Active data is closer to the central computer unit transported. The data processing capacity is increased considerably. The most important customer: Apple! The company was in the last quarter thanks to higher sales of Apple even clearly profitable. In the current quarter, sales of the Steve Jobs-but-firm should go back a little.
The market cares but little. The stock is trading more than 70 percent above the already too ambitious IPO price. Fusion io achieved in the last nine months, sales of 125.5 million U.S. dollars. Extrapolated, this results in an annualized sales level of 166.5 million U.S. dollars. The current market capitalization is 2.5 billion U.S. dollars. The price to sales ratio is thus at 15 For a hardware manufacturer that is an extremely high value.
Incidentally, Facebook as the flyer of the Web 2.0 scene is currently estimated at a value of 100 billion U.S. dollars. Revenues are expected in 2011 at 5 billion U.S. dollars. The PSR is therefore about 20 Unlike the other companies mentioned, Facebook is already highly profitable: In 2011, the net profit of two billion U.S. dollars. The PER amounts so given the extreme good market position and highly profitable business model viable 50th
The problem: You probably will get hardly any private equity investor at this valuation level to the depot.

MY CONCLUSION:
- The Web 2.0-shares, ie the second generation of Internet stocks are valued exorbitantly high.
- The first internet hype of the late 90s shows: real winner shares at these valuation levels are extremely rare.
- With the price-sales ratio of 15 to 26 the risks are both Pandora Media, as well as LinkedIn and Fusion io far too high.
See also the qualitative analysis of Pandora Media in the second part of the update ...

Exorbitantly high price to sales ratio!

The PSR is determined by the way, is where the market capitalization divided by sales.
Star Capital, the fund company has calculated the average price to sales ratio in the U.S. market as part of a research study in March 2011. It is 1.3. The only clue as to can arrange the following PSR-values ​​better. Is always significant turnover in the last four quarters. There are also - and for good reason - do not use analysts' estimates.
So let's look at the PSRs of the currently most popular Internet IPOs in the U.S.:
In the truest sense of the word "latest rage" is Pandora Media, a U.S. Internet music portal. Pandora has made over the past four quarters, sales of 137.8 million U.S. dollars and thereby retracted high losses. The market capitalization currently stands at 2.8 billion U.S. dollars. The PSR is therefore extremely high 20th Nevertheless, the stock at just under one million units of shares traded daily is very popular among investors.
In online business network LinkedIn, we determine the PSR something "benign" in which we take because of the recent very high growth in sales during the first quarter of 2011 as the basis for the full year. We come then to an annualized turnover of 376 million U.S. dollars. The market capitalization is 9.7 billion U.S. dollars, however. On this basis, a PSR of astronomical 26th
The greed of investors is here at LinkedIn and other Internet IPOs, even encouraged, in which the offer is artificially scarce. How does it work? It provides for the IPO subscription willing to just a relatively few shares. Although a total of 94 outstanding on LinkedIn million shares, only 7.84 million were offered. Logically, only those 7.84 million shares on the stock are freely tradable. The strategy went on wonderfully. Investors "to beat" for the few pieces, the price skyrockets. LinkedIn is currently trading at $ 100, although it was already amibitioniert the IPO price of $ 45 most.
The only (apparent) detriment for LinkedIn: The proceeds from the IPO are correspondingly lower (Offered Shares x issue price minus costs for underwriters accompanying the IPO). This deficiency is relatively easy but then leveled out, nachgeschoben in favorable market environment in which an additional capital increase, but at much higher prices. For example, this has been practiced by the Chinese YouTube clone Youku.com (IPO price at 12.18 U.S. dollars, then capital of 48.18 U.S. dollars).
Do not have enough to have that private investors in allocating much of a chance to get cheap shares and pay later, extremely high prices, which are publicly traded shares by LinkedIn also inferior in relation to the shares of existing shareholders. Inferior because they are equipped with only one vote per share. The shares of existing shareholders, however, have ten voting. In plain language: the voice of the independent shareholders at general meetings is zero.
Alone under these circumstances would normally be reason enough to shun the stock on LinkedIn. The PSR shows a sober figure on the extent of overvaluation.

Price to sales ratio as a popularity indicator

Unfortunately, in practice, exactly the opposite is true: Ken Fisher described in his book "Super Stocks" PSRs "as an almost perfect yardstick for the popularity of a stock." Internet stocks are a prime example here. Exciting growth stories capture the imagination of investors. The fundamental valuation then moves into the background.

Ie: the higher the popularity, the higher the PSR. The higher the PSR is the worse in the medium and long-term performance of the shares. Investors who were active at the new market can sing a song about it.

Underperformance of expensive values ​​proved statisticall

Legions of fund managers and private investors trying to beat the market through stock picking, so the selection of particularly promising individual stocks. 80 percent of professional investors fail to retail investors should look similar to the balance sheet. Failure in this context means that the yield of a benchmark index for German equities, for example, the Dow is not reached.
This shows that lasting outperformance, in technical circles called "Alpha" (hence the largest user-based U.S. financial portal, called, incidentally, "Seeking Alpha") reach, is damned difficult.
Statistically, however, it is easier to find those stocks that perform extremely weak in the long term. James P. O `Shaughnessy has this in his reference book" What Works on Wall Street "after. The single most important figure that he cites here is the price to sales ratio (PSR). The higher the PSR, the worse the following year the share price development.
The results are highly significant: Who since 1951 at the beginning of the 50 U.S. stocks bought with the highest PSR, it has held for a year and bought it at the beginning of the next year again, the 50 stocks with the highest PSR, which has until December 2003 achieved an average annual performance of 7.2 percent. In contrast, the group "all shares" reached a performance of 14.8 percent. Whoever bought the 50 stocks with the lowest PSR, an annual performance achieved by 19 percent.
Even the average values ​​show the superiority of stocks with low price-sales ratios. The difference is dramatic when one considers absolute dollar amounts. In the "Highest-PSR stocks" strategy was out $ 10,000 during the period just 19 118 U.S. dollars. The group "All of the shares" on the other hand, there were 5.74 million U.S. dollars at the "low-PSR stocks" strategy, even 22 million U.S. dollars (all figures excluding taxes and transaction costs).
The performance differences are not only for extreme values. If we assign all U.S. equities after ascending to the PSR, the PSR ie lowest first, and those with the highest last PSR and divides them into ten equally large groups (deciles) that the performance differences are also just as apparent. This means that the average performance of decile one is better than that of two deciles, which in turn is better than the so three deciles of
In other words, the results are statistically highly significant. Particularly striking is the extreme lower margin of the tenth decile, ie the stocks with the highest PSR. Right here there are usually very many Internet stocks.
Be taken into account must of course in practice, that technology companies can achieve on the basis of their business model (including procurement of software licenses) is significantly higher margins than pure retail companies or industrial companies with high fixed costs and therefore deserves a higher price to sales assessment have.
What is clear though: stocks with exorbitant PSRs (as a guide could be taken as all stocks with a PSR of ten) are toxic and reduce the yield solid, at least when you are bought by buy-and-hold investors rather than pure traders . Rule of thumb: Private investors should avoid stocks with double-digit price-sales ratios in each case.

Success stories are rare for shareholders!

Of course there are real success stories, and I at this point "real" as defined, that success is reflected in our share price. But these are few and far between today and the most successful Tech-/Internetaktien then played only a minor role (Apple) or were not listed at all (Google).

This underlines the fast pace of the industry. When social networking trend is no different: The former leader MySpace.com, which was still ascribed to four years ago, a market valuation of several billion U.S. dollars (then 185 million registered users), at the end of June for only 35 million U.S. Specific Media LLC sells dollars. The Corporation currently scandalous news about the struggling Australian media mogul Rupert Murdoch had 2005 580 million dollars paid for the company.

One of the few exceptions is Amazon.com. For years, the company and the stock was the center of controversy among investors. Meanwhile, the central question is answered: The strategy that the short-term profitability and growth at all costs the establishment of the brand in the minds of the consumer to sacrifice went on. She now serves as a blueprint for newcomers like the German online pet food dealer Zooplus or business network LinkedIn.

But shareholders who believed from the beginning to the story of Amazon, experienced an emotional roller coaster ride. From the bubble high of 106.69 U.S. dollars, it went down into the single digits and then back up to the new all-time high of 227.20 this Wednesday at U.S. dollars.

So Amazon is more than 100 percent above the old highs. But let's be honest: Had you stayed so cool and would have sat out the crisis years untouched? And if so, then at least you would not have sold when the stock had regained the old highs?

And anyway: a single hit with the whole flood of Internet values, which were touted a 1999 and 2000: Is not that a bit sparse?

A look back brings enlightening!

Very enlightening, the former kings of the Internet at the peak of the hype in the spring of 2000 - in retrospect - to undergo such a reality check. Jeremy Siegel in his classic book "Stocks for the Long Run" graphic to the right. Siegel then lists the nine most important Internet-/Technologie-Aktien PERs with over 100, including growth rates in the five previous years and the forecast of analysts' growth for the following year.

These predictions seem in retrospect like reading tea leaves. Even eleven years later not one of those listed (ex-) star only in the vicinity of the former courses. With Nortel Networks to complain there is even a bankruptcy. Make no mistake: From typical hype shares with illustrious names such as CMGI, Inktomi, Exodus (anyone knows?) Or Lycos is not here mentioned. It's about the real blue chips of the time.

Nevertheless, the results are devastating: AOL, which once had as much in terms of sales of smaller Internet service providers swallowed the media giant Time Warner, staggers towards insignificance. The share price of Cisco Systems, which have since been at least once a doubling of earnings brought about, and still the world leader in routers are is a tragedy. The market capitalization is only about one-fifth of the former highs. As the number of outstanding shares (eg through stock options) is significantly higher than when the share price performance is even worse.

An elephant is high time to also report: Sun Microsystems has since been acquired by Oracle. Cause for joy is still not: Taken together, both companies are now worth less than when each one individually. Has still beaten the best Qualcomm, which dominate the CDMA-standard mobile long patent in the U.S.. Even Qualcomm still not to the highs seen in 1999 comes around. By the way: a value such as eBay, have become in fact the Dominator at Internet auction sites listed, now barely above the highs of 2000, was so in the last eleven years is anything but a good investment for shareholders.

FX OPTIONS TREND OPINIONS 25.7.2011

Australian Dollar Trading OUTLOOK
AUX (USD/AUD): further USD decline expected


Pivot: 95.00
Our forecast: Down move towards 89.15 or even 85.35.
Comment: The pair has validated a rising wedge pattern (bearish pattern) which argues for further decline.


To leverage our Trend Opinion on Australian Dollar, we can use different options :

1. Buy AUX Aug 11 92 PUT
2. Buy AUX Sep 11 92 PUT
3. Buy AUX Sep 11 91.5 PUT

It is only the future growth be still in the emerging markets?

Of a healthy self-sustaining recovery may unfortunately be no question in industrialized countries. As our growth outlook is bleak, the Harvard professor Kenneth S. Rogoff determined together with his colleague Carmen M. Reinhart.

The two economists studied together for the years 1946 - 2009 the ratio of public debt to GDP growth in 20 industrialized countries and came to an alarming result: up to a public debt amounting to 90% of GDP succeeds in the developed countries by debt growth of 3 - to buy 4% per year. From this mark, it does not just come to a rapid decline in growth but an economy experiencing a recession even average.